How Japan went from a rice shortage to a rice surplus in two years, as climate change, tourism, and a U.S. trade fight collided

In 2023, extreme heat and drought devastated Japan’s rice crop, triggering a national shortage so severe it caused political upheaval and forced a government minister to resign. By 2026, the situation had inverted completely, with Japan sitting on a record surplus that compelled the government to intervene to prevent a total market collapse. This rapid oscillation from scarcity to oversupply has baffled agricultural experts and policymakers alike, highlighting the fragility of Japan’s food security systems in an era of climate volatility.

Ryosuke Inoue, a fellow at the CSIS Japan Chair, noted that the scale of this fluctuation caught even seasoned analysts off guard. Data indicates that private rice stocks plummeted from a standard 2 million tons to 1.5 million tons during the crisis, causing prices for a five-kilogram bag to surge from ¥2,000 to ¥4,300. The government was forced to release emergency reserves for the first time since 1995, a move that drew sharp criticism for being delayed. Currently, stocks have rebounded to 2.43 million tons, with prices softening back toward ¥3,300 as the government initiates buy-back programs.

The roots of the crisis lie in the 2023 heatwaves that compromised grain quality, exacerbated by a post-pandemic tourism surge and panic buying. Historically, Japan’s rice market has been opaque, with distributors prioritizing profit margins over transparent supply chain management. This lack of visibility left regulators unable to respond effectively when the shortage hit. Furthermore, the aging demographic of Japanese farmers—with an average age of 67.7—complicates production, as small, fragmented plots in mountainous regions become increasingly difficult to maintain or transfer to new operators.

Geopolitical tensions further complicated the domestic market, particularly regarding trade relations with the United States. During the 2025 shortage, President Trump pressured Japan to increase rice imports, leading to a trade deal that boosted U.S. rice purchases by 75%. This influx of foreign grain arrived precisely as domestic production surged in response to the previous year's high prices, creating a double-pressure scenario on local farmers. The reliance on imports, intended as a safety net, has now become a point of contention as domestic supply stabilizes and prices face downward pressure.

Looking ahead, experts like Inoue advocate for a structural overhaul of Japan’s agricultural policy, specifically proposing a Price Loss Coverage program similar to the U.S. model to protect farmers from market volatility. As climate change continues to drive extreme weather, the current boom-and-bust cycle remains a significant threat to national stability. Without systemic reforms that allow for flexible market responses and better land management, Japan remains vulnerable to future supply shocks that could once again destabilize the nation’s most essential food staple.