Analyst: Russia May Sacrifice Iran Ties for U.S. Deal

TEHRAN, Oct 19 (OPA) — Davood Gharayagh Zandi, a professor at Shahid Beheshti University, stated that the incoming Trump administration is prioritizing a swift conclusion to the Ukraine conflict. According to Zandi, Washington aims to stabilize the region and secure a narrative of victory by pressuring Ukraine to hold elections and potentially sideline President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Zandi argues that current diplomatic maneuvers between Moscow and Washington are transactional. He suggests that Russia seeks to mitigate sanctions and protect its energy infrastructure by offering the U.S. access to its oil resources. In exchange, the U.S. aims to stabilize domestic fuel prices ahead of midterm elections and limit Iranian influence in the Strait of Hormuz.

Regarding the potential for a broader realignment, Zandi noted that it is logical for Russia to reconsider its support for Iran if it secures significant concessions from the U.S. regarding Ukraine. He posits that Moscow may calculate that Tehran lacks the domestic capacity for a major foreign policy shift, effectively forcing Iran into a deeper state of dependency on Russian support.

However, Zandi expressed skepticism regarding the long-term viability of such a deal. He warned that a major U.S.-Russia agreement would likely fracture the Western alliance, creating a rift between Washington and its European and Canadian partners. Such a policy shift would face intense scrutiny within the U.S. over concerns regarding Russian influence in American political structures.